Tuesday’s Primary Will Decide Which Democrat Will Challenge DeSantis

The race is ultimately a debate over who is best positioned to defeat DeSantis in the upcoming midterm election.

MIAMI — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is poised to learn the identity of his general election opponent on Tuesday as Democrats choose between a man who spent a lifetime in politics — much of it as a Republican — and a woman casting herself as “something new” as she seeks the energy of her party’s resurgent base.

The Democratic establishment has largely lined up behind Charlie Crist, a 66-year-old Democratic congressman who served as the state’s Republican governor more than a decade ago. Running now as a moderate Democrat, Crist is facing 44-year-old Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, who hopes to become the state’s first woman governor while leaning into the fight for abortion rights.

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The race is ultimately a debate over who is best positioned to defeat DeSantis, who emerged from a narrow victory four years ago to become one of the most prominent Republicans in politics. His relatively light touch handling the pandemic and his eagerness to lean into divides over race, gender, and LGBTQ rights have resonated with many Republican voters who see DeSantis as a natural heir to former President Donald Trump.

His reelection effort is widely assumed to be a precursor to a presidential run in 2024, adding to a sense of urgency among Democrats to blunt his rise now.

“I have been in the trenches. I have taken on DeSantis,” Fried said. DeSantis “won’t have a 2024 because he won’t have a 2022. We are going to beat him in November, and we are going to kill all of his aspirations to run for president of the United States.”

Crist, in an interview, described DeSantis as a threat to democracy.

“He is the opposite of freedom. He is an autocrat. He is a demagogue. And I think people are sick of him,” Crist said of the sitting Republican governor, noting that DeSantis earlier this year admonished a group of high school students for wearing face masks at an indoor news conference. “Who is this guy? Who does he think he is? He is not the boss.”

The Florida contest wraps up the busiest stretch of primaries this year. Republicans from Pennsylvania to Arizona have supported contenders who have embraced Trump’s lies that the 2020 election was stolen, an assertion roundly rejected by elections officials, the former president’s attorney general, and judges he appointed.

And for the most part, Democrats have avoided brutal primary fights. That could be tested Tuesday, however, as voters in New York participate in congressional primaries that feature two powerful Democratic committee chairs, Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler, competing for the same seat and other incumbents fending off challenges from the left.

Democrats are entering the final weeks ahead of the midterms with a sense of cautious optimism, hoping the Supreme Court’s decision overturning a woman’s constitutional right to an abortion will energize the party’s base. But Democrats still face tremendous headwinds, including economic uncertainty and the historic reality that most parties lose seats in the first midterm after they’ve won the White House.

The dynamics are especially challenging for Democrats in Florida, one of the most politically divided states in the US. Its last three races for governor were decided by 1 percentage point or less. But the state has steadily become more favorable to Republicans in recent years.

For the first time in modern history, Florida has more registered Republicans — nearly 5.2 million — than Democrats, who have nearly 5 million registered voters. Fried serves as the only Democrat in statewide office. And Republicans have no primary competition for four of those five positions – governor, US Senate, attorney general, and chief financial officer — which are all held by GOP incumbents.

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Democrats hope that US Rep. Val Demings, who faces a little-known candidate in her Senate primary Tuesday, can unseat the state’s senior US senator, Republican Marco Rubio, this fall. But for now, the party’s national leadership is prioritizing competitive Senate contests in other states, including neighboring Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania.

In Florida’s governor’s race, the Supreme Court’s abortion decision has animated the final weeks of the Democratic primary.

Fried has promoted herself as the only true abortion-rights supporter in the race, seizing on Crist’s appointment of two conservative Supreme Court justices while he was governor.

The conservative-leaning court will soon decide whether the Republican-backed state legislature’s law to ban abortions after 15 weeks is constitutional. Florida’s new abortion law is in effect, with exceptions if the procedure is necessary to save the pregnant woman’s life, to prevent serious injury or if the fetus has a fatal abnormality. It does not allow exemptions in cases of rape, incest, or human trafficking.

Crist insisted he is “pro-choice” and highlighted a bill he vetoed as governor in 2010 that would have required women seeking a first-trimester abortion to get and pay for an ultrasound exam.

“It is a woman’s right to choose,” Crist said “My record is crystal clear. And for my opponent to try to muddy that up is unconscionable, unfair, and unwise.”

In experience and personality, voters have a clear contrast between Crist, an establishment-backed lifelong politician viewed as a relatively safe choice, and Fried, a newer face who may be in better position to catch fire with the party’s most passionate voters.

Crist has raised $14 million so far this election cycle, nearly twice as much money as Fried. Having served in elected office since 1992, his supporters describe him as reliable and personable with an excellent memory.

“He is the best retail politician in Florida in this century. He is just an outstanding politician. He asks about my grandchildren by name,” said Mac Stipanovich, a political strategist who served as chief of staff to former Republican Gov. Bob Martinez.

Meanwhile, Fried has gained twice as many followers on every social network and is quick to jump on online trends. She built her profile as one of DeSantis’ fiercest opponents, regularly challenging him on policy related to the COVID-19 pandemic. She also created a position within her department to ensure LGBTQ members are given opportunities as DeSantis wages what the Human Rights Campaign recently described as “an assault on transgender Floridians.”

DeSantis signed into law what opponents called the “Don’t Say Gay” bill that bans lessons on sexual orientation and gender identity in kindergarten through third grade and restricts it in upper grades. He also championed the “stop WOKE act” that restricts race-based conversation and analysis in business and education, although a Florida judge last week declared the law an unconstitutional violation of free speech.

Such issues have been good for DeSantis’ standing with GOP voters.

The Florida governor touted his record at a weekend rally with more than 1,000 Pennsylvania voters, having already recently campaigned for Republican allies across Arizona, New Mexico and Ohio.

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DeSantis was officially in Pennsylvania to help the GOP gubernatorial candidate, Doug Mastriano. But DeSantis barely mentioned Mastriano’s name in remarks to his Pittsburgh audience and focused instead on the political battles he fought in Florida to confront liberal “woke ideology.”

He didn’t mention that he’s running for reelection for governor this year.

“If you lead and lead with strength and courage, and you deliver results, the people will be with you,” DeSantis said.