Opinion: The biggest factor the polls aren’t showing: People.

The biggest factor the polls aren’t showing is people. People volunteering. People talking with people. People rising. And, importantly, people who care deeply about real issues that lower costs for families and boost the economy – and importantly, people who also want less vitriol, racism, misogyny, and hate.

This week’s massive ellipse crowd of over 75,000 people spilled out into the streets, rolled over the National Mall, and exceeded the expected 40,000 audience on the National Park permit by a whopping 35,000 people. The fact that there’s a deep well of support, which the polls are missing, for Vice President Kamala Harris was demonstrated in tens of thousands people changing their plans at the last minute so they could be there – and in waves of reverberating cheers. 

That’s not the only indicator that polls are missing a rising movement. A history-setting number of people, more than 72,049, have stepped forward to help get out the vote at MomsRising, the organization I help lead, by handwriting postcards, holding events, texting other moms, and more; and other organizations are experiencing similarly unprecedented levels of volunteer engagement.

Meanwhile many Presidential polls are still showing a tie, as if a coin was flipped, it would land on its side between Harris and Trump.

How are these two things happening at the same time?

The biggest factor the polls aren’t showing is people. People volunteering. People talking with people. People rising. And, importantly, people who care deeply about real issues that lower costs for families and boost the economy – and importantly, people who also want less vitriol, racism, misogyny, and hate.

Within this mix, a key silent factor driving the massive crowds, volunteers, and energy is the fact that Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Walz strongly support finally building the care infrastructure (that includes affordable child care, homecare, paid family and medical leave, and fair pay for care workers) that will lower costs for families, help address the labor force shortages many businesses face, and boost our economy. That kind of care infrastructure is what people, businesses, and our economy as a whole desperately need. 

For instance, a newly released issue tracking poll found that 78% of voters say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports long-term care, child care, and paid family and medical leave – as a package.  This includes suburban women (83% total more likely), non-college women (82%), women of color (81%), Independent voters (73%), AAPI voters (81%), Hispanic voters (80%), and Black voters (88%).

As the news repeatedly reminds us, the more than 94 million mom voters, particularly mom voters in suburban areas, are in the crosshairs of the tug of war for votes. Make no mistake, who they decide to vote for could determine who is sitting in the Oval Office in 2025. The margins are that close.

This makes care infrastructure policies the key “sleeper” issues of the 2024 election, surprising the political elite.

Moms and parents, and Vice President Harris and Governor Walz, aren’t surprised though.  Both Harris and Walz have long successfully worked to help address the fact that our family economic security policies need to catch up with today’s workforce realities; and dozens of organizations including MomsRising, Caring Across Generations, the National Domestic Workers Alliance, and unions like the Service Employees International Union have been building a movement and raising the alarm for decades. 

This is a big deal, not just for parents, but for our economy as a whole. For instance, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said, “Our peers, our competitors, advanced economy democracies, have a more built-up function for child care, and they wind up having substantially higher labor force participation for women. We used to lead the world in female labor force participation, a quarter-century ago, and we no longer do. It may just be that those policies have put us behind.” 

These policies are important. Harris, who was raised by a single mom herself, and Walz don’t just know we need to lower costs for child care, which now costs more than college, to no more than 7% of income, so that parents can go to much-needed jobs, kids can thrive, and care workers can earn living wages that make it possible for them to stay in their profession. Harris and Walz have time and again advanced solutions to the child care crisis. 

Harris and Walz have also long-supported and advanced paid family/medical leave for after a new baby arrives or a serious health crisis strikes like every nation in the world except the United States and five others already have in place. Right now, without this key policy, one in four moms are pushed back to work within 2 weeks of giving birth, still recovering, and not yet fully bonded – and too many are pushed out of much-needed jobs. It’s not humane, it’s bad for kids, families and businesses – and it doesn’t have to be this way. Governor Walz has even successfully signed these policies into law in his home state.  

And Harris’ new home care plan, which allows Medicare to cover the costs of home care so people can age with dignity in their own homes without families having to bankrupt themselves in order to qualify for help, is a much needed solution to the crisis of aging in America. This crisis is too often shouldered by the 30% of people in the “sandwich generation” – people who are sandwiched between having to pay sky high costs for both child care and eldercare. 

It turns out that care policies are the “sleeper” issues that – along with the fight to ensure our daughters don’t have fewer freedoms than we’ve had and everyone has access to reproductive health care, including abortion, IVF, and birth control – may very well decide the outcome of the 2024 election. Care policies are helping drive unprecedented numbers of volunteers and huge crowds for Harris, because they are the issues that have long been causing moms and parents across the nation to have sleepless nights filled with anxiety and worry.  And the sheer number of people shows what many polls are missing: Victory is within reach. The outcome is still on us. Let’s vote.